Sent in to Everything Geraldton:
Just want to give a shout out to my dad, Dennis Teale, local pilot for many years, found the missing people today east of Sandstone. On instinct flew up a track, off the designated search and rescue flight path and found the people alive! A very humble local hero in my books!
- Peter Teale
“Labeling the GMO approach “scientific” betrays a very poor—indeed warped—understanding of probabilistic payoffs and risk management. A lack of observations of explicit harm does not show absence of hidden risks.”
GM crops have been grown in WA for several years. Proponents for the use of GM crops will tell you they're safe, but there is a loud and growing voice against the use of the crops claiming the safety of the environment and humans is far from assured.
A paper recently published by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a high profile commentator on risk, and other high profile co-authors, argues that the issue regarding GM crops calls for a thorough understanding of the risk of ruin, and the Precautionary Principle.
The co-authors include a number of well-known researchers such as Raphael Douady at the Institute of Mathematics and Theoretical Physics in Paris and Yaneer Bar-Yam at the New England Complex Systems Institute in Cambridge.
The paper shows why GM crops need to be approached using the Precautionary Principle.
Here's a quote from one of the paper's authors Nassim Nicolas Taleb,: "GMOs have a peculiar illustrative role because they multiply, have systemic not just idiosyncratic risks, and opacity about the interactions is compounded under the curse of dimensionality."
The argument regarding the use of GM's is not regarding what we know, but what we don't know, and what the potential for harm is.
The paper is called "The Precautionary Principle (with Application to the Genetic Modification of Organisms)."
From the first paragraph:
"The precautionary principle (PP) states that if an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing severe harm to the public domain (affecting general health or the environment globally), the action should not be taken in the absence of scientific near-certainty about its safety. Under these conditions, the burden of proof about absence of harm falls on those proposing an action, not those opposing it. PP is intended to deal with uncertainty and risk in cases where the absence of evidence and the incompleteness of scientific knowledge carries profound implications and in the presence of risks of "black swans", unforeseen and unforeseeable events of extreme consequence."
PP is a widely understood approach for those familiar with risk analysis. Your insurance company probably has that special "no floods" cover because they know that if there's a widespread flood, they go bankrupt if everyone is covered. They understand they cannot afford the risk of ruin.
But politicians don't necessarily understand PP, and how it compares to regular risk management. This is the reason for the paper.
Essentially, the paper argues that the burden of proof regarding the safety of GMOs falls on the proponents to demonstrate their safety, not others to demonstrate their danger; and also that the potential side effects of GMO's is systemic rather than localised, meaning we really can't predict the possible harm GM crops could cause.
While the paper is very heavy on mathematics, it's well worth a read whatever side of the GM debate you find yourself on. Click here to read.
Those who are pro GM often accuse those who oppose it as being against progress. They say, rightly, that everything involves some degree of risk, and while GM involves a level of risk, the reward is greater than the potential risk.
That logic seems fine at first.
There's a risk in driving to the shops. You might die in a car accident. But that's a small possibility, and you will have food if you go. So it's worth the risk.
But GMO's fall under a special type of risk; that is the risk of RUIN.
Society can recover from a car accident. Your death will not stop our society from functioning. By definition, society cannot recover from ruin.
There's several points argued in the paper that demonstrate why GMOs should be treated under the PP as they pose the risk of ruin. Here's one:
"Ecologically, in addition to intentional cultivation, GMOs have the propensity to spread uncontrollably, and thus their risks cannot be localized. The cross-breeding of wild-type plants with genetically modified ones prevents their disentangling, leading to irreversible system-wide effects with unknown downsides. The ecological implications of releasing modified organisms into the wild are not tested empirically before release."
"One argument in favor of GMOs is that they are no more "unnatural" than the selective farming our ancestors have been doing for generations. In fact, the ideas developed in this paper show that this is not the case. Selective breeding over human history is a process in which change still happens in a bottom-up way, and can be expected to result in a thin-tailed distribution. If there is a mistake, some harmful variation, it will not spread throughout the whole system but end up dying out due to local experience over time. Human experience over generations has chosen the biological organisms that are relatively safe for consumption. There are many that are not, including parts of and varieties of the crops we do cultivate [12]. Introducing rapid changes in organisms is inconsistent with this process. There is a limited rate at which variations can be introduced and selection will be effective [13]. There is no comparison between tinkering with the selective breeding of genetic components of organisms that have previously undergone extensive histories of selection and the top-down engineering of taking a gene from a fish and putting it into a tomato. Saying that such a product is natural misses the process of natural selection by which things become “natural." While there are claims that all organisms include transgenic materials, those genetic transfers that are currently present were subject to selection over long times and survived. The success rate is tiny. Unlike GMOs, in nature there is no immediate replication of mutated organisms to become a large fraction of the organisms of a species. Indeed, any one genetic variation is unlikely to become part of the long term genetic pool of the population. Instead, just like any other genetic variation or mutation, transgenic transfers are subject to competition and selection over many generations before becoming a significant part of the population. A new genetic transfer engineered today is not the same as one that has survived this process of selection."
So the argument for why we should hold off on using GM crops is not so much to do with proof of danger as it is largely to do with the fact that we cannot know all the risks involved at this point in time, and rolling the dice with our entire ecosystem is downright foolish.
Well that's one way to keep salespeople away!
Robert just wanted to let everyone know that the snakes are out and about already, after he found this friendly fellow at his front door.
This was in Mahomets.
The Rigters Group is widely considered as one of the cornerstones of our local community, and are known for their charitable activities.
As part of Chevron’s City to Surf for Activ, they have already raised their way into record books by being the biggest team ever to take part in the Geraldton leg of the event.
Let’s help them to reach their $10,000 target!
For each ‘like’ this post receives on Facebook, the Rigters Group will donate $1, it’s that easy! Click here to visit the post and like it.
Post #ThanksRigters to either of the pages below for a $5 donation!
This was just sent in to EG
"I was driving on Herbert Street in wandina, the new area. When I almost didn't see this wire going across the road, could of been some serious damage to someone's car, or even worse an accident. Especially if someone was on a motorcycle. I'm assuming kids did this, I don't know how dumb they can get. Absolutely no reason to be doing this sort of thing, think about what could happen next time you do something so stupid!"
A local author, Ali Constable, has recently published a book titled 'The Hero of the Ashes' and it is set in Geraldton and locations to the east.
The book is very character driven and relationship focused, and ultimately a story of hope. Thus it immediately entwines the reader into the lives involved. It is about how you are forced to get on with life while you are grieving and how people around you are oblivious to your pain.
It's about the courage and strength of mothers when faced with extreme situations. While Esther (the main character) is a girl of action, Marybelle (her helper and friend) is more openly lead by Faith which together forms the focus.
I was moved due to my own personal pains and am convinced others too would feel this deep connection.
This is the first to be published in a set of three. Those who have read the first are very eager for the next to be completed, as each chapter leaves you wanting to know more and the last of course does the same.
A quote by the author:
'The complete 3 book arc covers grief, loss, action, adventure, love, faith, marriage and grace and puts forward the question; what part would YOU play if our Government issued a Call to Arms....'
Geraldton Police are asking for assistance in identifying the female in yellow jacket pictured, for a fraud offence. Contact Geraldton police with info on 99234555
The RAAF balloon has hit the skies for a farewell flight.
At approximately 6.30am this morning, Squadron Leader Damien Gilchrist took off from Queen's Park, Geraldton, for a display flight over the city.
At approximately 7.30am, the balloon landed in an empty lot in Kane St, Wandina, and approximately 50 local residents came outside to talk to the pilot and take photos.
Around a dozen children had the opportunity to join the pilot in the basket (but not all at once!).
The children were then safely returned to their parents and the balloon continued its flight. It landed safely in a paddock southeast of Geraldton at around 9am.
Local resident Courtney was pleasantly surprised yesterday to find her bin had been emptied, despite having not put it out.
The bin was on the other side of the street.
She decided to check her home's security footage to find out who the Good Samaritan was.
What she discovered prompted her to contact us and express her gratitude.
We shared the message of thanks to the Veolia driver who had gone the extra mile for Courtney onto our Facebook page.
Geraldton residents loved the post, sharing it far and wide. Currently over 36,000 people have seen Courtney's note of thanks.
Rob, a manager at Veolia, reached out to us, in the hopes of working out who the driver was.
After working out where the house was, it was discovered that the helpful driver was "Zatie Hazel".
He's been rewarded with a $50 Bunnings voucher.
If you have kids that love watching the rubbish bin truck come past like I do, you've probably seen Zatie before. He's perhaps the friendliest driver I've ever come across in my time on this earth.
Thanks for making Geraldton a better place Zatie.
Get into the Father’s Day spirit at your locally owned Tackleworld.
We’ve got heaps of prizes to give away to our lucky winners.
Simply post photos out fishing or hunting with dad, or dad having a great day doing these to our Facebook page to enter.
1st Prize - $100 Tackleworld Voucher
2nd Prize - $50 Tackleworld Voucher
10 Runner Ups – Pack including an Ifish DVD, Tackleworld Cap and Strada Lure Voucher. (Worth $50)
Winners will be drawn on Friday 4th September, so get your entries in now!
Pop in and see us and get dad something he can really use this Father’s Day – We’re at 20 Anzac Terrace, Geraldton
Burst water main just north of White Peak Rd near NWCH. Be careful of water on road.
Sent in moments ago:
Fires in Rangeway
Mellows place
Update:
Fire was started accidentally by four year old. All safe.
Another candidate has announce he is running for the office of Mayor. Current councillor Shane Van Styn has released a letter announcing his candidacy, and he states several reasons for running.
The full release follows:
After talking with many people in the last few months I have been encouraged to run for Mayor.
People tell me they are tired of the City not listening to their demands, tired of buck passing and the never ending requests for more rates to cover increasing costs especially for services not seen as the core business of the City. People want someone who will not only listen and talk but also act.
Sure the City is not responsible for law and order but we can advocate harder for increased Police and tougher sentences, even curfews and not just stay out of the law and order debate claiming simply “it is not our responsibility”.
Sure the City is bearing large cost increases but we can work harder in lowering our overall costs and driving economic efficiencies to keep rate rises low. In my businesses I make these decisions every day as I cannot simply keep lifting my prices.
The current field of candidates, have over a long time, either led our City through heavily opposed amalgamation or the subsequent obscene large rates rises or both. The blow out in current City costs results from these decisions made over the years.
I have been working hard as a Councillor to resolve the difficulties we now face and have been a vocal campaigner against the rate rises and costs excesses of the City, but supported worthwhile projects as required.
We need to get back to basics and fix our roads and footpaths, improve street lighting, support our clubs, protect our environment and heritage, support new businesses and provide quality day to day services expected of a large regional City.
We must also not neglect Mullewa and Greenough; areas that are important parts of our City.
I will work tirelessly to restore confidence in the City by continuing the current drive to be a safer, more economically responsible and more commercially attractive City that listens to its residents. I will be a strong advocate for Geraldton even if in areas traditionally not our responsibility.
I ask voters to elect me as their Mayor to set a fresh direction for our City by restoring the community’s confidence in it.
Shane Van Styn
At around 2.05am this morning, police were called to attend a two car crash on Chapman Road in Glenfield involving a Holden Commodore and Ford Futura.
Both cars were on fire when emergency services officers attended the scene.
Three people were found deceased at the scene. Police say these people are yet to be identified.
It is believed that the crash occurred when the Ford Futura collided with the rear of the Holden Commodore.
The male driver of the Ford Futura and sole occupant of the vehicle left the scene after the crash, but was apprehended by police a short distance away.
He has been conveyed to Geraldton Hospital with unknown injuries.
Major Crash officers will arrive from Perth this morning to carry out further examination of the scene.
Chapman Road is closed between Macedonia Drive and Hagan Road until further notice and motorists are asked to avoid the area.
Geraldton Police are on the lookout for a man who fled from this wreckage following a pursuit.
They tweeted a moment ago:
"Police on the hunt for a man who fled the scene after a pursuit #luckytobealive #6monthsjail #whenwefindhim "
According to witnesses the crash occurred on the corner of Horwood and Edward Rd.
The Geraldton Cemetery is asking for the public's assistance following the theft of a ute early this morning.
This morning between 1.32 and 1.48am a work ute was stolen from the Geraldton Cemetery Compound. It is a 1999, V6 petrol, silver Holden Rodeo DX, aluminium tray-back 2WD.
The two thieves, wearing hoodies, cut through the compound fence, jemmied open the new shed, hot-wired the utility and drove it through the locked compound gates. CCTV footage is being examined and Geraldton Police have been informed. If anyone has any information or spots the utility could they please contact Geraldton Police. This is just another occurrence of ongoing vandalism at Geraldton Cemetery.
Geraldton Police can be contacted on 9923 4555.
Next week Geraldton will see more than 60 professionals sharing their insights and experience with the wider community.
Read MoreOnce a narrative or story takes hold in a community, it's hard for facts to make much of a difference in people's minds. People don't really read charts, scientific studies, or do their own research when forming opinions. They read memes on Facebook, news articles that summarise things often in an over simplistic manner, and maybe discuss it with their friends at the pub/scrapbooking/footy training.
For example, for several years people believed mobile phone towers caused cancer. Despite data showing it not to be the case, successful community campaigns were held that resulted in towers being removed from locations near schools and child care centres.
So a question we wanted to find out the answer to was how high are Geraldton's rates compared to nearby locations? More specifically, since the very large 27% rate increase that occurred several years ago, have the rather modest increases since then done much to bring us back to par with our neighbours.
We decided to compare the rate increases over the last four years in Geraldton with neighbouring Chapman Valley. At one point in time CV was to merge with Geraldton. That never happened. Since then, rates have increased in both locations with many Geraldton residents under the impression Geraldton's rates have skyrocketed while Chapman Valley's rates barely budged.
It's not a fair comparison to simply place two rates notices side by side and compare them. That would be an apples to oranges approach.
So to keep things fair (and simple), we gave both Councils a starting number of 100 for 2011/12, then added to that the % increase each year.
Here's how they compared:
Chapman Valley
Starting: 100
2012/13 - 7% increase: 107
2013/14 - 7% increase: 114.49
2014/15 - 6% increase: 121.36
2015/16 - 5.5% increase: 128.03
Greater Geraldton
Starting: 100
2012/13 - 27% increase: 127
2013/14 - 2.25% increase: 129.86
2014/15 - 4.7% increase: 135.96
2015/16 - 3.9% increase: 141.26
Using this index Greater Geraldton is higher by 13.23;
Which is 10.33% higher than Chapman Valley.
So the question:
Over the past four years have Greater Geraldton rates increased by more than Chapman Valley? Yes they have.
Is it a drastic difference? Debatable. Using this index Geraldton's rates have increased 10.33% more in four years than Chapman Valley's.
That's not to say that's good news, or bad news. It's just nice to know what the facts are. With the lower increases over the past 3 years, it's not 20% higher,
If CGG future rate increases are able to be kept below the 4% mark then it's possible Geraldton could come close to CV in the not-too-distant future, unless CV are also able to tighten their belts.
Via Dongara Police : Brand Hwy closed, Arrowsmith due to car fire. Emergency Services in attendance.
Up Next
