Thousands around the world are dead and dying, and the novel coronavirus/SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19 is barely getting started. (The virus is SARS-CoV-2, it is a type of coronavirus, and the disease it causes is called Covid-19 Link).

This has resulted in a mixture of responses from people and governments across the world. Some, like Italy, took virtually no steps and continued to welcome all foreigners, and now their hospitals are overwhelmed, the nation is in complete lockdown, and doctors are having to decide whether to even give beds to older people as it may be best just to use the limited equipment on younger people with a better chance of survival. Link.

Other nations like the USA decided to engage in a “don’t test don’t tell” strategy. The New York Times just uncovered the mind blowing account of government agencies deliberately stopping scientists from testing and discovering who had the virus (link) and their country has since gone from “meh” to “WTF this is the worst thing ever” in 2 days. Supermarket shelves are emptied, ATMs are emptied, and no one was prepared. Yesterday the Ohio governor admitted publicly they estimate they have well over 100,000 infected people. Link. That’s JUST IN OHIO!

Despite this publicly available information, local authorities are still extremely slow to do or say a thing. Melissa Price and her colleagues, instead of banning travel to the USA, have been so slow to respond. For some strange reason, Minister Peter Dutton went to the USA and contracted covid-19 himself. STILL no travel bans to or from the USA have been implemented.

Political expediency is STILL being placed BEFORE the lives of Australian citizens.

It took WAY too long for the Liberal Party to ban travel to or from China. And even when they eventually did, they refused to ban travel from countries that were not banning China travel. That is to say, Chinese people could still infect people in Europe, and Europeans were then welcome to come and infect people here in Australia.

Anyone sounding the warning bell was labelled an alarmist. People who saw the writing on the wall and began to stock up were attacked in the press.

The world is slowly starting to realise this is the worst health crisis, worst crisis of any kind, we have seen in our lifetimes.

Denmark has just announced all their borders are closed to everyone except their own citizens. Link.

Czech Republic has closed its borders. Link.

Slovakia has closed its borders. Link.

Cyrpus has closed its borders. Link.

Poland has closed its borders. Link.

But authorities here seem to have a fatalist approach, telling everyone they’re all likely to get it and hoping it will result in herd immunity.

Facts about Coronavirus Covid-19 that still seem to be largely unknown by many Australians:

It is at least 10 times, perhaps 30 times, deadlier than influenza. (Link)
The medical community has grave concerns for the long term health impacts of people who survive the illness. Authorities claiming those who recover from serious infection will just return to normal are being misleading. Link.
It can travel through the air. Washing your hands does little if you’re breathing the same air as someone with the virus. Link. Study. The World Health Organisation was previously telling people it was not airborne, but recently removed this from their website.
It survives on various surfaces for up to 9 days. Link.
We have no certainty that herd immunity will eventuate. Link.
People can have the virus for more than 2 weeks before symptoms appear. Once you find out someone near you has covid-19, you’re 2 weeks or more behind. CDC data shows a patient with an incubation period of 28 days, and others ranging 7 to 17 days. Link. We know for a fact that telling people you haven’t been somewhere dangerous for 14 days simply isn’t sufficient.
People with absolutely no symptoms can spread the virus. “Screening” at airports and ports simply is not sufficient. Link. Telling people you can “screen” for this virus is outright misleading.

…countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by a factor of ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.

Link.

What is extremely mind blowing is that instead of arming the public with the cold, hard facts, politicians and the media have bent over backwards to try and downplay this because they don’t want to be accused of causing panic.

What Australians need are the facts, no matter how grim they are.

Despite all this publicly available information…

There are still people in our community claiming this is “just a flu”. The utter disregard for the safety and lives at risk, especially among people who are overweight, over 60, asthmatics, anyone with compromised immune systems, and health care workers who will be constantly exposed to this, is mind blowing.

Comparing the numbers of a virus that has just starting spreading for a month, with mammoth efforts to mitigate it, against an entire year’s worth of deaths from the flu, shows utter ignorance of statistics and maths, and is outright dangerous. This pseudo-empiricism is all over Facebook and network television at the moment, and it is having a very real effect on how vulnerable people choose or choose not to prepare themselves for the coming virus.

Our vulnerable elderly community members could have been steadily preparing themselves for the last six weeks, but instead the constant message from social media pundits, the media, and politicians, has been “there’s no need to stock up on supplies.”

If these people are best off self-isolating for a few months in order to reduce their risk of death, stocking up on supplies is the FIRST thing they should have done!

This is, in statistical language, a fat-tail problem (link). As it grows, its effects get exponentially worse and worse. If we had 10 years worth of influenza in two months, can you imagine how over burdened our health care system would be? It would have an order of magnitude effect on everything.

Nurses and doctors will get sick, thus there will be less health care workers. Schools will close, meaning parents will need to care for children, meaning even less doctors and nurses will be available. Respirators and other equipment will be in global short-supply, meaning you won’t actually get the proper care you hope for when you do get sick, meaning your chances of survival reduce.

Unless we slow the rate of infection for this thing NOW, we simply won’t be able to care for the sick as they present to the hospitals.

But I thought the risk was low?

The GLOBAL risk assessment according to the World Health Organisation is VERY HIGH. Link.

Telling someone the risk of transmission is low is incredibly misleading. It is as if there is a category 5 cyclone off the coast heading straight for us, and it is getting stronger every day. Telling people not to bother to prepare TODAY and that the risk is low, simply because the storm isn’t on our shores yet, is beyond absurd. We can see it coming. We have to act BEFORE it gets here. What’s more, not acting now is exactly HOW this particular storm gets here quicker.

We have seen EXACTLY what happens if we act like Italy or the USA, or we can treat this seriously and admit it is not low risk at all.

What’s even sadder is if you contract this virus right now and get sick, and you don’t know who you may have got it from, Australia WILL NOT TEST YOU! Only people who have travelled overseas, and people who know to whom they may have been exposed to it from, will be allowed to be tested. Link.

The Australian government has not made enough resources available for everyone to be tested!

This is an absolute disaster in the making, and is the OPPOSITE approach South Korea engaged in which eventually slowed the spread of the virus, in testing everyone who had any symptoms.

Ok this is serious! So what should we do?

Close all borders BEFORE it becomes widespread here. And engage in social isolation BEFORE you find out your friends and neighbours have the virus.

Continuing to wait for what “the authorities” say you should do is what has lead us to this point. Australia’s incompetent government waited WAY to long to close the borders to China, still haven’t closed the borders with the rest of the world; the USA govt engaged in a deliberate effort to stop testing from happening; the Chinese government arrested the doctor (who later died from covid-19) who tried to warn the world about this virus; Italy criticised other countries who closed the border to them early; the Japanese government expressed outrage and was offended when people suggested the Olympics might not happen and promised the world they would happen… the list goes on and on. Politicians have consistently put public perception ahead of public health.

The people in Government are not smarter than you, and do not have access to secret information about how we’re all going to be ok. They are flying by the seat of their pants. No one alive has ever had to deal with something like this. And despite scientists warning us about something like this for years, we did nothing to prepare, stockpile, nor did we act early and effectively once we knew this was coming.

We all have to take personal responsibility for our actions, and DEMAND the public servants currently at the helm put our safety AHEAD of politics and money. It might mean you need to send emails, make phone calls, or write letters. But if you value the health of yourself and your loved ones more than the health of the share market, then make sure your voice is heard.

But what if we over react?

If we take extreme preventative action now, before the virus is out of control here, the same thing that happened after the GFC and y2K bug will happen again. A whole bunch of ignorant people who have no idea how bad things almost were will all tell each other “ha ha those idiots over reacted. See! It wasn’t that bad after all.”

I admit this makes it a no-win for politicians. If they don’t do enough, they will be blamed for the deaths and carnage that ensues.

If they do what they should, and they stop this in its tracks, they will be blamed for the economic fall out that results and told they over reacted.

What we need to do now is look at the potential downside for each option.

Take drastic measures ? = people laugh at us for over reacting.

Don’t take drastic measures ? = people die.

But I’m healthy. I’ll be fine! I’m low risk.

If you had a cold you wouldn’t visit the intensive care ward of a hospital.

You stopping your healthy 30-something self from getting this thing isn’t just about you. During the incubation period you will spread it to your parents, your grand parents, the old lady shopping at Coles, the elderly couple at church… the list goes on.

Ok. But we’re all going to get it, so let’s just carry on as normal. Nothing we can do!

Please don’t spread this message. It’s absurd. We don’t all have to get this.

But even if it was true, the death rate will be FAR higher if the health care system is overwhelmed. Slowing this virus is saving lives, so when people DO get it, there are resources available to treat them.

So why hasn’t the Mid West Port Authority stopped all the cruise ships?

All across social media Geraldton community members are expressing grave concern than the Cruise ships are still coming, despite evidence showing the virus cannot be detected for over 2 weeks in many people.

The CEO of the Mid West Port Authority, Dr Dr Rochelle Macdonald, yesterday defended her decision to keep the ships coming, with a post claiming the actions the port is taking are sufficient. The actions the port said they’re taking include “screening”, and this clearly wasn’t enough to change Geraldton residents’ minds.

A poll on Everything Geraldton’s facebook page about the ships showed an overwhelming majority of people want the ships stopped immediately.

This is the full text of the post from Dr Rochelle Macdonald:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update

The safety of our staff, stakeholders and the Mid West community is our highest priority and we take our obligations extremely seriously with this regard. Mid West Ports is working closely with our stakeholders and Government to reduce exposure of COVID-19 virus, particularly in relation to cruise ships visiting our port.

The risk of transmission of COVID-19 in Australia remains low, however MWPA recognises the situation is evolving and the need to remain vigilant.

We understand there is some concern in the community around the visitation of cruise ships to our port, however please be mindful that we have strict and well established protocols in place to ensure serious infectious diseases, including COVID-19, are identified and appropriately managed.

The Western Australian Government is confident the arrival of cruise ships into WA ports present minimal risk to the health of West Australians.

All ships entering our port, including cruise ships;
1. Have their passengers and crew screened by our Marine Team, regardless of if they have been screened by another port or company;
2. Are to have no crew or passengers to have travelled to high risk areas in the 14 days prior (COVID-19 incubation period) to the ships arrival to Geraldton; and
3. Are required to complete and submit a Health Report by the ships master which is assessed by MWPA prior to accepting their request to berth in Geraldton.

MWPA;
1. Practices and protocols have been implemented by ports nationally, meaning we are leading the way in our safety approach;
2. Has a representative on a Canberra led weekly teleconference with federal and state departments, meaning we have an understanding of progress at a national level; and
3. Will continue to ensure we are a part of the COVID-19 response conversation to be in a position to take appropriate measure as they are identified.

Further information
• Health information is available at www.healthywa.wa.gov.au/coronavirus
• Coronavirus information hotline – 1800 020 080
• The Western Australia Government has a new page which includes official information regarding COVID-19 in WA - www.wa.gov.au/covid19
• Smartraveller – information regarding travel advice for Australians - www.smartraveller.gov.au

If you have any further concerns, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us at communityfirst@midwestports.com.au

Dr Rochelle Macdonald
CEO

Is the information supplied by Dr Rochelle Macdonald accurate?

At first glance, the information provided by Dr Macdonald may lead one to believe that anyone getting off the boat is guaranteed not to have a SARS-CoV-2 infection. After all, they are “screening” people.

What the letter from Dr Macdonald is not telling you is that the port is not stating they are doing lab tests for SARS-CoV-2 infections in passengers, and it appears they are only looking for people who display or report actual symptoms. This is despite authorities being well aware that the virus spreads through people who display no symptoms whatsoever.

It is not clear why Dr Macdonald is telling the public at large that the risk of transmission is low. The World Health Organisation says the opposite of this.

Dr Macdonald, in her letter, says the port can “ensure” covid-19 is detected. It is not clear how this can be done without lab tests.

It is open to debate whether an ordinary member of the public would be lead to believe that the port is actually able to prevent anyone with a SARS-CoV-2 infection from entering Geraldton, or if that is what they are claiming they are able to achieve.

One community member asked what was actually involved in a “screening”. Mid West Port Authority did not directly answer this question. It’s not clear if they take temperatures, do swabs and lab tests, just do a survey… we still don’t know what how a screen can “ensure” patients with the virus that display no symptoms can be detected by the Mid West Port Authority per Dr Macdonald’s claims.

They did provide this response though:

“All passengers and crew on all ships are screened for having travelled to or through high risk areas. No passengers or crew are permitted in port until they have met the 14 day exclusion (coronavirus incubation period). All ship masters are required to submit a health report on all persons on their ship which is assessed by the ships agent, and our Marine Team. Any persons presenting with coronavirus and/or presenting with systems would result in the ship being declined berthing rights at Geraldton port. We must mention that ship agents and ship masters have been very cooperative and forthcoming with this information. Our pilots will only board a ship once the all clear is given by our Marine Team. Once on board, if our Pilots detect any health concerns they have authority to return the ship to anchor for further investigation. Emergency procedures in place, are implemented immediately to reduce the exposure of any illness to our Pilots, and immediate notification to State Government will occur. To date this has not occurred.”

Note the port is also re-stating their belief that the coronavirus has an incubation period of 14 days, despite information from the CDC describing a mall incident where multiple people were infected showing a range of incubation periods of up to 17 days.

Another concerned community member pointed this out to the port authority, and asked “ If they are asymptomatic they aren't going to show any signs of illness are they 🤔”

The Port did not respond to that comment.

Link.

Note, it is possible the port is deliberately using the language of “covid-19”, that is the actual disease with external symptoms, rather than the term “SARS-CoV-2” infection. The letter from Dr Macdonald states “ensure serious infectious diseases, including COVID-19, are identified…”.

Scientifically speaking, detecting Covid-19 is not the same thing as detecting a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

However, in the minds of the regular person, this distinction is not apparent, and the port should be forthcoming about its ability or inability to detect a SARS-CoV-2 infection in someone with no apparent symptoms.

This video will help you understand covid-19 coronavirus.

The Government has made an ad about the Coronavirus and its surprisingly honest and informative 🌍🦠

👉 Spread the message not the virus: #FlattenTheCurve pic.twitter.com/gHB0k0qkFN
— theJuice (@thejuicemedia) March 14, 2020

So we just flatten the curve but we all get the virus?

Despite the good intentions from the flatten the curve meme going around which we linked to above, there is evidence containment works. It may be economically painful, but the “flatten the curve” graphs give an illusion that we may actually have capacity to handle everyone getting sick over the next year or so. The graphs though have no numbers, and don’t seem to take into account how many patients will need ICU. THIS ARTICLE explains it in more detail. We need to copy China’s strategy and completely shut down and exterminate this thing. Planning a “let it burn through the population” strategy instead of a “containment” strategy is extremely risky at best, and catastrophic at worst.